Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
